05: Estimating the Blur airdrop
Is it worth the peanuts everyone says it is?
This week’s post will be brief.
I have high conviction that Blur bid points are being hugely underappreciated and under accumulated.
But again I must remind you that I am an idiot, and copying me here will likely result in you losing all of your money.
If Hal is right and Blur trades with an FDV of over $1BN, then what does that mean the airdrop is worth?
Source: https://medium.com/hashed-official/we-need-to-rethink-airdrops-next-cycle-730706f963a7
Taking the average of 31 different airdrops over the past few years, Hashed calculated that the average airdrop was 7.5% of supply.
If we take Hals estimate of $1bn FDV and assume 7.5% of that is airdropped to users, that means the airdrop is worth $75m.
Blur stated that airdrop 2 is worth 10x of airdrop 1 and airdrop 3 is worth 1-2x of airdrop 2.
That means that Airdrop 3 is likely to be worth the most with estimates ranging from 65% of total airdrop to a low of 47.5%
For now lets take the 58% estimate as most likely.
This would mean that airdrop 3 alone is worth $43.5m. Not bad for an airdrop during a bear market.
Yeah, but that will all go to whales, no point in even trying innit????
Contrary to popular belief, the Blur Airdrop is not just for whales. Over the past 12 days, I've tracked the number of points accrued by using a rough estimate method of copying and pasting the top 500 leaderboard into excel at random intervals. The analysis revealed that the median points of accounts reaching the top 500 is 171, with a mean of 1,183.
Additionally, we can roughly calculate the daily distribution of points by taking the average of the 24-hour points on the leaderboard. Currently, it averages to 64,000 per day. However, snapshots taken earlier in the week show higher figures, suggesting that the points may decrease as time goes on.
Assuming that 100,000 points were available on day 1 and decreased by 600 per day, the total possible points across all of Airdrop 3 would be 5.6 million points. This means that the median user, assuming equal distribution of the airdrop, would receive 0.0031% of phase 3, while the mean user would receive 0.0211%.
Whilst these may sound like really small numbers, when they are applied to a big number, they also become a big number.
Generating more than 1,000 points isn't super difficult, as I've experienced firsthand.
The fact that it's been relatively easy to get into the top 100 daily suggests that the Blur Airdrop is significantly underrated, providing a huge opportunity for those who are willing to challenge conventional wisdom and put in effort.
Have a wonderful weekend!