Airdrop Szn
I think it's coming
Dear friends, readers, occasional listeners, I hereby would like to state with a high degree of confidence that we are about to enter the long-awaited airdrop season.
Those of us who are still here, having survived some of the toughest financial market conditions ever experienced, are on the precipice of finally approaching the light.
Over the next few months, an avalanche of token launches is set to take place, and those who stayed and diligently farmed while the world around them burned are set to be rewarded with great riches.
Why do I think the Airdrop season is coming?
Other large-scale projects have started to airdrop.
This week alone, we've seen Meme & Celestia launch multi-billion-dollar FDV tokens. We've also seen Jupiter announce a launch, and we know the second Blur airdrop is coming at the end of November.
This has set the scene, and now other teams are likely to be FOMO'ing at all the attention these new shiny projects are receiving.
Once the first set of teams go and launch a token, all the rest follow. It feels less risky. The tokens didn't go straight to zero. The founders weren't immediately sent an angry letter by Mr. Gensler. The VCs and angel investors are all advising you that now is the time.
Maybe now is the time?
We are approaching the end of the year.
Incredibly, I spent 10 minutes looking for a list of historical Airdrops and their respective dates and found 0 useful information on Google. I wonder if anyone has this list to hand because it would be super interesting to review.
But anyway, the reason I think year-end is important is that it's usually when teams push their major updates.
Typically, companies (mostly accidentally) set their targets based on calendar years, and that means that deadlines for big announcements/project launches typically have hard deadlines for year-end.
For this reason, I do think the next two months could see an explosive uptick in airdrop announcements and token launches.
*Note, I have no evidence to back this up, but for some reason I remember in my head in 2021 so many launches taking place towards the end of the year.
Prices are up.
Kind of a self-explanatory point. No one wants to launch at the peak of the bear market when sentiment is at an all-time low.
Launching at a time when hope has returned, prices are going up, and there is a tailwind at their backs via the upcoming Bitcoin ETF is probably a great time for projects to launch.
When people are excited and hungry to get involved and believe once more in a decentralised future that we all originally buy into when we join the space, they are less likely to mercilessly dump the tokens to zero while FUDding on Twitter.
Vesting, vesting, vesting.
This is the most important point in my opinion. Typically, founders, investors, teams, etc., all have token lockups that start from the date of TGE.
Usually, these begin to unlock after one year.
The general consensus is that a bull market is likely to take place in 2024/2025. Therefore, launching now with one year's vesting means your tokens begin to unlock during the bull market.
This is far better for teams than launching at the peak of a bull market, where it's likely a year later their now-unlocking tokens are down 90%, and the entire community hates them and is super angry all the time. Oh, and all the liquidity and bids dried up anyway, so there's no one to buy the tokens now, even if you wanted to sell.
So anyway, there are some reasons why I'm super excited for the next few months. Readers of this blog will know I've been in the weeds for some time trying out loads of new projects over the past year, so I'm quietly hoping that pays off for me.
And for now, I'll be doing what I've always done: looking for projects that are fantastic but have slipped under the radar of the usual crowd of overzealous, annoying airdrop farmers. For in that sweet spot is where the true magic returns happen.
Thanks for reading, and have a great week!