Life is a casino
Choosing skill based games over rigged ones
Life is simply a series of bets we make, and then we die.
One of the most mentally freeing realisations is when you discover that everything in life is just a giant casino.
The casino of life comes with nearly unlimited different games to choose from, all providing varying odds and outcomes.
Higher education is a type of casino. You pay some amount of money, pick a degree, and hope that in three to four years that bet grants you access to a high paying job and a fulfilling career.
Some win, some lose.
The job market is a kind of casino. You bet on an industry, then a company and then hope that your boss is not evil, the business continues to grow, you get a promotion, and the entire sector you’ve dedicated your life to is not made irrelevant by new innovations.
The same is true for dating, choosing our friends, picking our hobbies, the food we eat, and our health.
Almost anything that exists, when you break it down and look beneath the societal norms we tell ourselves, is some kind of mini-game within a larger casino.
And the odds and outcomes are vastly different depending on which game you choose.
Some games are rigged games, where there is no advantage to any particular player, and the house always wins. Think slot machines, programmed with mathematical certainty that over a large enough number of spins, the casino always ends up in profit.
No action you take here will improve or reduce the odds of success; it is entirely outside of your control.
Sure, these types of games might be fun to gamble a few dollars here and there with your friends. But if you view these games as a way to make you rich or as a way out of poverty, you will eventually develop a crippling gambling addiction and lose everything you own.
Avoid these games like the plague.
Some games are skill-based games, where an individual can improve/train/use their individual intelligence to gain an advantage at said game and perform better than others.
A non-financial related game that exists in this category is diet and exercise.
If you dedicate even a small modicum of time to working out and eating healthily, it’s overwhelmingly likely you’ll outperform the person eating McDonald's twice a day across an entire spectrum of life-based events.
Of course, an element of luck still exists. You might be super unlucky and spend years eating healthily only to be diagnosed with a rare disease, but on the whole, choosing to play the skill-based game of optimising health will give you positive returns more often than not.
The real challenge of life is choosing which skill-based games to focus on and spending the required time to master them.
The answer to this problem is still one I’m working out.
I’d guess the solution is to pick games that provide win-wins, benefiting your health, community, and bank balance at the same time. Or maybe the real life hack is simply optimising for happiness, and money doesn't actually matter at all once you get past affording the basic necessities to have a comfortable life.
But in the wise words of Will Smith after he punched Chris Rock, “I am a work in progress.”
Maybe someday I'll figure it out.
But for now, let’s look at something I do know some stuff about, and that thing is the current happenings in the world of Crypto.
Crypto, as we all know at this point, is the world's biggest online casino. There are countless mini-games to choose from, and unlike most casinos, anyone with an internet connection can participate. Information is “mostly” transparent, and new exciting games are developed every single day.
The great thing about Crypto is that it’s still mostly a skill-based game. With the absence of overbearing regulations accidentally forcing the game into a rigged one where the incumbents continually win and solidify their position with lobbying, the small individual still has a chance to compete here in a meritocratic way.
If you pick the right games, that is.
Some market participants in Crypto spend their time inebriated, attracted by the shiny lights and exciting sounds like Pavlovian dogs, sprinting around the casino and sitting at the machine next to the one that just won, certain that their turn is next.
This is not how you play a skill based game.
From time to time, this type of behavior becomes infectious. After a new Memecoin or NFT grabs the attention of the masses and rags-to-riches jackpot stories begin circulating, the intoxicating aroma of quick riches drags even the stable-minded amongst us into the rigged game arena.
In the very early days of this type of new meta, you could argue it is still a skill-based game. Identifying the relevant derivative, being early to pre-sales, determining which narratives might run is certainly a game that can be improved with time, effort, and intelligence.
However, as time goes by, it becomes increasingly more likely that the casino you are now in is one of terrible odds. Bad actors realise they can make fast money launching a pre-sale, honeypots spring up, the attention is diluted across hundreds of projects as everyone rushes to be early. This leaves the secondary marketplace dry, as those willing to buy slowly lose their money or opt to wait for the next thing they can be early to rather than buying pre-salers' bags.
When a game reaches this late stage, you have to ask yourself, is this still a skill-based game, or a rigged one?
Right at this very moment in Memecoin land, it’s 5 am in the morning in Vegas. Everyone remaining is drunk out of their mind, on their way back to the cash point for the fifth time that night, and is pondering how angry their wife would be if they withdrew another $500 from their savings account. Everyone else in the casino is part of a gang waiting by the cashpoint, ready to rob you at knifepoint.
This is the stage of the game where terrible decisions are made, and life-ruining events can take place.
It’s time to leave the casino, go to bed, wake up somewhat refreshed, and determine what the next skill-based game you want to play is.
As is true in life, the secret to success is determining which skill-based games to play and mastering them.
Right now, I'm leaving the Memecoin arena and searching for a new skill-based minigame that has great odds.
I’ll let you know when I find it.